Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the tension sparked by the introduction of a new 28-point plan for ending the war appeared – briefly – to have been defused. A senior US official spoke of "notable headway" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its countermove: a renewed assault of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Peace Talks and Military Action
The succession of contrasting events captured the grim essence of the outgoing year. By day, negotiation efforts are conducted: hopeful statements are delivered from multiple capitals. Immense energy is expended on containing particular approaches. By night, Moscow brutally reminds the world that, for them, military action persists as the primary tool for achieving "settlement".
Nocturnal Warfare
As military strikes progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's defenselessness was exposed. Ukraine is able to track missile launches from across the border, a capacity enabled by up-to-date information. From vantage locations, military aircraft that had been deployed to counter approaching aerial threats roared overhead – advanced fighter aircraft delivered to Ukraine by European allies.
Moments later, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons activated: multiple launches deployed against a hostile projectile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, most likely supplied through Western nations. Every deployment shakes the surroundings, rattling buildings. The instant of fear quickly transforms into grim resignation: maybe the approaching threat won't strike its target this time, protecting urban areas from devastation and another blackout.
Ongoing Risks
Not long after, a heavy machine gun engaged a aerial vehicle somewhere nearby, part of a rapid response unit – most likely allied-provided weaponry. Sadly, the shots failed to hit the opposing UAV – it continued its flight toward its target.
With pauses, this continued until dawn. Kyiv faced the daybreak reports: seven people killed, destruction and infrastructure problems in numerous residences as a result of the evening attack. As customarily, everyone still maintained normal activities – enduring hostilities. But those 24 hours illustrated Ukraine's essential dependence on external assistance – a need that European nations are demonstrably unable to fill in the short term.
Failed Diplomacy
The detailed framework from Washington provoked deep reactions, controversy and profound anxiety – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after previous diplomatic encounters and bilateral conferences.
Every new approach from Washington adheres to the same pattern: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, effectively counters. They contain the crisis but never actually achieve victory. This trend will, undoubtedly, persist.
Political Considerations
It is easy to blame certain parties of persistently promoting Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. Washington operates on a premise well known to international relations experts: you cannot secure via talks what you have failed to defend militarily. The White House presumes that it is unfeasible to pressure the Kremlin to relinquish the areas that it currently occupies in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The challenge is that while accepting these circumstances, US leadership does nothing to discourage Russia, through diplomacy or military means, from thinking that the situation will not evolve additionally in its advantage in the months ahead.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, Russian leadership is convinced that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its allies are coming close to fatigue. Their incentive to accept conditions that does not give them the maximum possible gain is almost completely absent. There may be many attempts to end hostilities, but they will continue as long as Russia's leadership remains supremely confident in the outcome.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still persist, progressively conceding civilians and areas but preventing a total frontline collapse until circumstances change in its favour.
Present Conditions
Factually, there are no actual prerequisites for a ceasefire. Now, personal considerations are entering the equation: personal goals to mediate resolution and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Kyiv's double obstacles – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to unite the population around the country's interests against any proposal Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their priority does not move to homefront challenges. And although their task will now be much harder after current events, it remains highly unlikely that this will modify their basic position.
These two forces are influencing discussions.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a just a single week to terminate the proposed articles of the current initiative. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by Washington, resistance by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with soothing efforts of representatives, and finally, latest revelations, all served their function.
While new proposals based on established approaches are imminent, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter negotiation assaults from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and show specific hesitation to change the course of events, if they stand together and strengthen their defence capabilities at a much faster pace. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the coming months, primarily depend on sustained allied backing.
