Ten years following the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that divided the nation and unleashed chaos, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That represents the warning from two prominent writers from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially contentious and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can build support rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our islands remains very unstable."
Released Volume Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have analysed the political, economic and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the issue with a tour of speaking events that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts all parties, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you land with an extraordinarily polarised community where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the those successful lack clarity precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim this point is imminent, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists minimise the prospect, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements for and against unification has hidden the lack of serious debate, noted the journalist.
"Many are for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A lot has gone on in academia but very few politicians or advocates are willing to participate with the essentials. For instance, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, neither author advocates unification or the existing arrangement. Both authors two essays that seek impartiality in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument against, assembling financial and societal figures, historical precedents and structural examples.
Debates range over national emblems, duties, health services, pensions, public liabilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to educate and provoke conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there is still lacking a dialogue," commented the writer. "Debate suggests an recognition of the idea that there could be valid points on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they prefer unity but refuse increased taxation or adopting a new flag to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland should work out what the offer from Irish nationalism is beyond just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride considers a referendum in his generation is probable and that it could happen abruptly. "It is possible just a reckless or a bad or a incompetent official who says: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid perspectives, he said. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and the other side will in the end not succeed but both parties has possesses important lessons to acquire from the opposing positions."
Call for Wider Dialogue
Westminster should join the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This is about your state. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish issue."
